Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Mon Feb 11, 5:08PM CST

Corn futures closed the Monday session with most nearby contracts 1 1/2 cents lower. The weekly USDA Export Inspections report showed 743,536 MT of corn was shipped in the week of February 7. That was a drop of 17.5% from the week prior and 12.17% lower than the same week in 2018. Among the numerous 18/19 US balance sheet revisions on Friday, USDA slashed the feed and residual number by 125 mbu to 5.375 bbu as well as trimming the ethanol usage number by 25 mbu. Their average farm price estimated range was narrowed by 20 cents, with the mid-point still at $3.60. CONAB will release their February crop update for Brazil on Tuesday morning.

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.72 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.80 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.88 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.92, down 1 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures ended Monday with most contracts 8 to 9 1/2 cents lower. Meal futures were down $1.20/ton in the nearby contracts, with soy oil 63 points lower. A private export sale of 120,000 MT of soy meal was reported to Ecuador this morning, with the delivery split for 18/19 (60,000 MT) and 19/20 (60,000 MT). Soybean shipments in the week that ended Feb 7 totaled 1.064 MMT, with 487,450 MT headed to China. That was down a slight 2.64% from last week and 20.58% below this time last year. On Friday, WAOB trimmed the 18/19 US use total by a net 15 mbu, thanks to a 25 mbu reduction to export that was partially offset by 10 mbu larger crush. USDA also narrowed the estimated average farm price range by 50 cents, with a mid-point remaining at $8.60 compared to $9.33 last year. AgRural estimates that Brazil’s soybean harvest is 26% complete, vs. the 12% average. They also slashed their production estimate by 4.4 MMT to 112.5 MMT, vs. the latest USDA estimate of 117 MMT.

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.05, down 9 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.19 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.33, down 9 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.41 1/4, down 9 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal closed at $304.90, down $1.20,

Mar 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.24, down $0.63

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures settled with most CBT contracts steady to 2 1/4 cents higher. MPLS was mixed, with front month March up 5 1/4, as KC was 1 3/4 cents lower to 2 cents higher. The USDA reported a private export sale of 128,000 MT of HRW to Nigeria this morning through their daily reporting system. The sale of 120,000 MT SRW to Egypt from Friday was confirmed by USDA. This morning’s USDA Export Inspections report indicated that 562,307 MT of all wheat was exported in the week of 2/7. That was up 27% from the previous week and 12.5% larger than this time in 2018. The 36 mbu jump in projected 18/19 US carry out on Friday was due to a 30 mbu decrease to feed and residual and 6 mbu lower for seed usage.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18 1/4, up 1 cent,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.93 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.73 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle saw most contracts steady to 62.5 cents higher on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were up 50 to 77.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was up 4 cents on February 8 at $141.73. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday afternoon. Narrowing the Ch/Se spread to $3.02. Choice boxes were up $1.53 at $216.88 with Select $2.69 higher at $213.86. Monday’s USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter was at 116,000 head. That is down 2,000 head from last week but 5,000 larger than the same week last year. Last Saturday’s estimated slaughter was revised to 35,000 head, which brought the weekly total 7,000 head higher to 620,000 head. A majority of last week’s cash trade was reported around $125 on Friday, up $1 from the week prior.

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $127.825, up $0.450,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $128.300, up $0.375,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $118.375, up $0.275,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.675, up $0.575

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.675, up $0.775

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.675, up $0.775

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were up 12.5 cents to $1.45 in most contracts on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 36 cents from the previous day @ $56.53 on February 7. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 64 cents on Monday afternoon at an average weighted price of $65.46. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 50 cents in the PM report, with a weighted average of $48.88. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday at 444,000 head. That is down 28,000 head from the previous week and 18,000 below the same Monday last year.

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $55.175, up $0.125,

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $59.075, up $0.650

May 19 Hogs closed at $67.400, up $1.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures posted sharp 123 to 200 point losses on Monday. The US dollar index was 424 points higher on the day. A National Cotton Council producer survey released in San Antonio showed intended planted cotton acreage 2.9% larger than last year at 14.5 million acres. The Cotlook A Index was down 80 points on February 8 to 82.05 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price is 64.61 cents/lb through Thursday. USDA trimmed their cash average price for cotton on Friday to 71-73 cents, with the mid-point down 2 to 72 cents. China’s ag ministry raised their 18/19 production number by 0.1 to 6.04 MMT, while also raising their import projection by the same to 1.6 MMT.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 70.550, down 200 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 71.760, down 193 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 73.130, down 188 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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