Stock Index Futures Higher in Spite of Weak US Economic Data
Alan Bush of ADM Investor Services - - Mon Jun 17, 8:46AM CDT


U.S. stock index futures are higher in spite of news that the June Empire State manufacturing index posted its largest ever decline into negative territory.

The index plummeted 26.4 points to negative 8.6 in June, according to the New York Federal Reserve. Economists had expected a reading of positive 10.

The 9:00 central time June housing market index is expected to be 67.

My view remains that the global reflation scenario is on track and easier credit conditions from most of the worlds central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are coming and will be the dominant fundamental that supports stock index futures in the long term.


The U.S. dollar declined as a result of the weak Empire State Manufacturing survey.

The euro currency is higher on news that euro zone wage growth accelerated in the first three months of 2019. European Union's statistics said pay per hour worked was up 2.5% from the first quarter of 2018. This was an improvement from a 2.3% increase in the final three months of last year and was the fastest gain since records began at the beginning of 2010.

The euro is higher in spite of news that yields on Germany's 10-year government debt fell to their lowest level on record at minus 0.262%.

The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will hold policy meetings on Thursday. No changes are expected from either meeting.


Traders continue to believe the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates to boost economic growth.

The Fed is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at a policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.However, the central bank is expected to signal the possibility of an interest rate reduction later this year.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is an 85% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points or more at its July 31 policy meeting. On Friday the probability was 87%. Another rate cut is likely later this year.

With the U.S.-China trade dispute apparently far from a resolution, the flight to quality vehicles are likely to trend higher.


September 19S&P 500

Support 2890.00 Resistance 2907.00

September 19 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 96.740 Resistance 97.130

September 19Euro Currency

Support 1.12790 Resistance 1.13370

September 19Japanese Yen

Support .92560 Resistance .92860

September 19Canadian Dollar

Support .74580 Resistance .74830

September 19Australian Dollar

Support .6878 Resistance .6911

September 19 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 153^30 Resistance 154^30

August 19Gold

Support 1333.0 Resistance 1354.0

July 19Copper

Support 2.6100 Resistance 2.6500

July 19 Crude Oil

Support 51.63 Resistance 52.88

Please contact Alan for more extensive information on these markets at 312.242.7911 or via email at Thank you.

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