AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

December 10, 2018

Corn futures closed Monday steady to 1 1/2 cents lower, with Dec up 1/4 cent ahead of Friday’s expiration. USDA reported a very large private export sale of 1,645,920 MT of corn to Mexico this morning. That was the fourth largest daily sale on record for corn, with 1.105 MT for 18/19 and the balance for 19/20. The weekly Export Inspections report indicated that 876,305 MT of corn was shipped in the week that ended on 12/6. The weekly export total was down 17.62% from last week but 22.06% larger than the same week in 2017. Accumulated exports are now 75.57% above year ago at 594.71 mbu. The Monday afternoon Commitment of Traders report showed money managers flipping their net position by 75,893 contracts in corn futures and options to be net long 53,745 contracts as of last Tuesday.

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.84, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.91 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.97 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Market Commentary

December 10, 2018

Soybean futures settled the day with 5 to 7 cents losses, ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE report. Nearby soy meal was down $1.20/ton, with soy oil 2 points higher. A private export sale of 125,000 MT of soybeans to unknown was reported by the USDA this morning. Their weekly update to the Export Inspections report indicated that 922,094 MT of soybeans were exported in the week that ended on December 6. That was down 11.84% from the prior week and 25.83% lower than last year. Spec funds in soybean futures and options slashed their CFTC net short position by 46,269 contracts on 12/4 to a net position of -17,593 contracts. A report from Bloomberg quoting anonymous sources suggested China may buy 5-8 MMT of soybeans for state reserves and allow commercial users to purchase another 2 MMT with the tariff waived or reimbursed. This could be the proverbial “trial balloon”. Brazil’s Abiove estimated the country’s 18/19 soybean crop at 120.9 MMT, 1.4 larger than the previous number.

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $9.09 3/4, down 7 cents,

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.22 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.35 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $9.51 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 Soybean Meal closed at $307.90, down $1.20,

Dec 18 Soybean Oil closed at $28.52, up $0.02

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Commentary

December 10, 2018

Wheat futures saw 4 to 6 1/4 cent losses in most CBT and MPLS contracts, with KC fractionally to 1 3/4 cents lower. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed that exporters shipped 418,460 MT of wheat in the week that ended on 12/6. That was down 11.81% from last week but up 18% from this week in 2017. Total shipments marketed YTD (404.17 mbu) are 16.24% lower than a year ago but have been gaining over the past several weeks. Analysts are expecting USDA to peg 18/19 world ending stocks at 266.5 MMT ahead of Tuesday’s monthly update, slightly lower than November. Delayed CFTC data showed spec traders in CBT wheat futures and options trimming their net short position as of last Tuesday by 10,206 contracts to -28,407 contracts. They also cut 7,227 contracts from their net short position in KC wheat to -2,445 contracts.

Dec 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.14 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.82 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.80, down 5 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Commentary

December 10, 2018

Live cattle were steady to 32.5 cents lower in the nearby contracts, with back months higher. Feeder cattle futures were up 45 to 90 cents in most contracts on Monday. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.07 on December 7 at $144.00. Wholesale beef prices were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.13 at $215.42, with the Select cutout value 44 cents higher at $200.94. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 119,000 head, even with last week and 2,000 head larger than the same Monday last year. The Commitment of Traders report showed the managed money net long position in live cattle futures and options expanding by 7,055 contracts as of 12/4 to 72,263 contracts. In feeder cattle futures and options, they moved to a record reported net short position of -5,774 contracts on that date.

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $117.575, down $0.325,

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $121.200, down $0.325,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $123.600, down $0.025,

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.025, up $0.650

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.750, up $0.875

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.275, up $0.750

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

December 10, 2018

Lean Hog futures saw most contracts 25 to $1.05 lower, as front month Dec was up 47.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 23 cents from the previous day @ $55.96 on December 6. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 98 cents on Monday afternoon at $72.65. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 49 cents this afternoon to a weighted average of $47.35. Monday’s estimated FI hog slaughter by the USDA totaled 479,000 head, 12,000 head larger than last week and 15,000 head above a year ago. Specs in lean hog futures and options trimmed their CFTC net long position by just 954 contracts in the week ending December 4, to 39,369 contracts.

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $54.725, up $0.475,

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $66.825, down $1.050

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $72.075, down $0.250

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Commentary

December 10, 2018

Cotton futures posted 27 to 35 point losses in the nearby contracts on Monday. The US dollar index saw sharp gains on the day. The Cotlook A index was down 195 points from the previous day on Dec 7 at 87.25 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 69.34, effective through Thursday. Export commitments for upland cotton now lag a year ago by 0.5% but are 70% of USDA’s projected total vs. the 60% average. Ahead of the USDA report on Tuesday, traders are estimating US cotton carryout will be trimmed. The delayed Commitment of Traders report indicated spec traders in cotton futures and options adding 1,108 contracts to their net long position on 12/4 at 38,102 cotnracts.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 79.880, down 35 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 80.890, down 28 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 81.460, down 27 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com